For the doubters out there, Toronto’s housing landscape is proof that Darwin’s theory of evolution is, in fact, the real deal. As single-detached houses join the list of endangered species here in the 416, we’re seeing the emergence of new forms of high-density housing, made to survive this storm of rising prices and dwindling supply, all by virtue of their very design.
What’s behind the housing crisis?
Depends who you ask. Some cite population growth while others point the finger at overseas investors, NIMBYs or government policy. The latter, argues the home-building industry, has all but halted new single-detached development, straining existing supply and pushing prices ever higher.
The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) reported just 1,001 new lowrise homes available for sale in builder inventories as of the end of February. This includes single-detached homes, semis and townhomes. Ten years ago that number was 17,304. BILD president and CEO Brian Tuckey called the scarcity of single-family lowrise homes “almost inconceivable.”
On a national scale, the Canadian Home Builders’ Association (CHBA) further identified a need for, and a lack of, high-density lowrise homes geared toward families. The CHBA calls this shortfall the “missing middle.”
The CHBA report, The Housing Supply Deficit – Not Enough Homes for Families with Young Children, points to a significant and growing mismatch between housing demand and what home builders are able to supply, given planning and zoning patterns and the lack of available serviced land.
“CHBA’s research shows that current patterns of urban development fail to address the needs of young families,” says CHBA CEO Kevin Lee. “This is the ‘missing middle’ in our largest and fastest-growing communities.”
The CHBA report carries with it a warning: if current trends continue, Canada will see a shortfall of 300,000 family-oriented homes in the next 10 years.
In the meantime, prices continue to rise. The average single-detached home in the GTA increased to $1,205,815 in February 2017, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB). And you can expect prices to continue their upward trajectory, with an expected increase of 10 to 16 per cent this year, TREB predicted in its Review and Outlook 2017. This is on top of the 17-per-cent price growth in 2016.
So, what can we do about it?
Again, it depends who you ask, but with no end to rising prices in sight, a necessary evolution is a likely outcome. And it’s already happening.
According to one developer, the answer to the housing shortage is stacked townhomes, for a number of reasons. Cost is certainly one of them.
“The fact that more units can be built and sold per acre allows all costs to be better distributed across a greater number of units,” says Joseph Alberga, director of sales and marketing at Lindvest. The developer is currently offering stacked townhomes at Brownstones at Westown in Toronto, and building Grand Cornell Brownstones in Markham, which is sold out.
To read the rest of this article, visit NextHome: High-density housing: The next frontier in low-rise
