From Lull to Lift: How Experience Helps Us Read the Cycle
After 30 years in this industry – first in marketing and sales for residential developers, now as a Financing Expert focused on residential, construction and commercial lending – I have come to recognize the deeper rhythms that shape our market. Some downturns come on fast. Others roll in slowly, tightening margins, stalling deals, and stretching timelines.
Right now, we are in one of those moments. Sites are quieter. Schedules are thinner. Many of you – developers, builders, renovators, trades, suppliers are doing everything you can to keep your teams employed, your operations lean, and your clients reassured. I see it. And I feel it with you.
But here’s what else I see: 2025 is not a collapse. It’s a contraction. And contractions have always –always – been followed by cycles of renewal. That’s not blind optimism. It’s pattern recognition from three decades on both sides of the industry.
The ones who come out ahead aren’t the ones with the flashiest projects. They are the ones who stay disciplined, adaptable, and connected. This message is for those of you doing just that.
1. Interest Rates Are Softening – and That Creates Breathing Room
The Bank of Canada has made seven rate cuts since its peak, bringing the overnight rate down to 2.75%. For those of you financing builds, this creates real, tangible breathing room.
What this means:
- Homeowners may start to re-engage with a new build or renovation projects they previously shelved.
- Renovators and trades could see more “stay-and-improve” clients return as refinance options become viable again.
We may not be where we want to be yet – but we are no longer where we were.
2. Prices Are Holding. Confidence Is Stabilizing.
According to a Reuters poll, home prices in Canada are expected to decline about 2% this year. In Metro Vancouver, we are seeing that same mild dip. It’s not insignificant – but it’s also not spiraling.
We are still near historical highs. And projections for 2026 and 2027 suggest a gradual recovery in both value and volume.
For those of you who own land, reassessing project timelines, or pricing spec builds – context matters. This isn’t 2008. It’s a plateau with a pulse.
3. The Vancouver Market: Data Behind the Headlines
Here’s what we are seeing in Metro Vancouver as of June 2025:
- Active listings: 17,561 (up 23.8% year-over-year)
- Sales volume: Down approximately10% (2,181 units)
- Sales-to-active-listings ratio (SNLR): Approximately 12.8%
- Detached homes: Sitting around 10% SNLR – solid buyer’s market
- Condos/townhomes: Closer to balanced
This environment may feel uncomfortable, but there’s clarity here: the market is giving you space to negotiate, modify, and regroup. Whether you are revisiting trade agreements or refining how you present your project to the market, this is where careful, informed adjustments start to gain traction.
4. Practical Guidance, Tailored by Role
Everyone’s navigating the same storm – but we are all in different boats. Here is what to consider depending on your seat:
For Developers and Builders
- Focus on multi-family and multi-generational layouts; they are not just trendy, they are responsive.
- Secure higher density parcels of land now, while competition is quieter.
- Value doesn’t mean cheap – function, adaptability, and energy savings win over flash right now.
For Renovators and Trades
- Help clients reimagine their space rather than abandon it.
- Package services around modular improvements: suites, energy retrofits, kitchen/living upgrades.
- Position your work as a pathway to long-term livability and cost control – not just surface refreshes.
For Suppliers
- Emphasize reliability, transparency, and lead time management.
- Explore volume-based incentives and local sourcing where possible – your clients need predictability as much as price.
- You are not just delivering materials. You are delivering confidence.
For Business Owners and Self-Employed Individuals
- Maintain clear, auditable financials – these are gold for lenders in uncertain markets.
- When renewing your residential mortgage, there’s flexibility: lender switches at renewal often bypass the stress test if your mortgage balance and amortization period remains the same.
5. Construction Starts May Dip – But That’s an Opportunity in Disguise
Over 25,600 homes were delivered across Metro Vancouver in 2024. But starts are projected to decline 13% this year.
That slowdown creates a unique window. Developers and builders with unsold inventory can craft smarter incentives. Those planning ahead can secure land at better value. And those navigating slow pre-sales can adjust layouts or marketing strategies without panic.
This isn’t about rushing. It’s about resetting with intention.
6. More Rate Cuts Could Be Coming
The Bank of Canada has kept its rate steady at 2.75% through June, citing economic caution. But many economists expect 1–2 more cuts by year-end if trade conditions soften.
For those carrying debt, negotiating financing, or exploring refinance options – this is real relief in motion.
7. The Mindset That Moves Us Forward
In every cycle, there are those who retreat – and those who recalibrate.
The ones who make it through stronger aren’t just those with deep pockets. They are the ones who sharpen operations, stay connected, and keep showing up with integrity.
You don’t have to be aggressive to be strategic. In fact, the most valuable moves right now are the ones rooted in stability, empathy, and clarity.
Final Word: Leading Through the Long Game
To every HAVAN member: I see the weight you are carrying. I know the decisions aren’t easy. And I also believe deeply in the talent, tenacity, and ingenuity of this industry.
But this isn’t the end of the cycle – it’s the middle. And what you do now matters.
The conditions are hard. But the opportunity is real.
What you build today – your business, your reputation, your relationships, your resilience – will define your position when the next wave arrives.
And it will arrive.
Until then, let’s keep sharing knowledge, lifting each other up, and leading together beyond the dip.
HAVAN continues to work with CHBA BC and CHBA to advocate for all levels of government to work together to address the challenges of the housing industry including zoning restrictions, density limits, and NIMBYism.
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